The National Weather Service is still expecting to see snow across parts of Alabama starting late tonight and lasting into Monday morning.
But, as with every time Alabama has a brush with winter precipitation, confidence on how much snow falls and who gets it is still not a lock, and things could change.
Forecasters urged Alabamians to keep an eye on the forecast tonight because there could be changes to who gets snow — and who doesn’t — and possible amounts.
Here’s what forecasters were thinking on Sunday:
The same storm system that has dumped snow on parts of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi today will affect Alabama starting late tonight and into Monday.
The precipitation is expected to begin in west Alabama late tonight and last through the day on Monday.
It could begin as snow or a wintry mix and then transition to all rain during the morning and afternoon when temperatures rise above freezing.
Areas in northwest Alabama could see up to a half inch of snow, with lesser amounts expected across the rest of north Alabama.
The northwest corner of central Alabama could also see up to a half-inch of snow, with a wintry mix or flurries expected farther to the south and east.
Even southwest Alabama could see a few sleet pellets, but no accumulations are expected, according to forecasters.
Temperatures are expected to dip again on Monday night, which raises the risk of a few slick spots on roads especially in north and north-central Alabama.
Here’s a look at what forecasters are expecting by region:
The National Weather Service in Huntsville said on Sunday that confidence was a bit higher for snow across north Alabama.
However, forecasters noted that there is still some uncertainty about when it will start and the exact amount of snow that will fall.
Areas west of Interstate 65 have the best chance of seeing accumulating snow, and amounts are expected to be a half-inch or less.
Snow could begin a few hours before sunrise and last through Monday morning. It is expected to change over to rain by midday.
Rain and sleet was moving into the area as of 9:15 p.m. Sunday:
Forecasters are concerned that any rain or snow left could refreeze Monday evening and leave patches of black ice on roadways. The weather service said some travel could be affected.
Lows are expected to fall into the 20s by late evening.
The National Weather Service in Birmingham said who gets snow or rain across central Alabama all depends on the timing and temperature trends — and nothing is set in stone.
“You cannot let your guard down with this; it all depends on how cold we get tonight,” forecasters said during a Sunday morning briefing.
The weather service however, went ahead and issued a winter weather advisory on Sunday afternoon for several northwest Alabama counties: Marion, Lamar, Fayette, Winston, Walker, Pickens and Tuscaloosa. It will be in effect from midnight tonight until noon on Monday.
“Plan on slippery road conditions,” the weather service said to those counties. “The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.”
Forecasters expect snow or sleet to mostly affect the northwest corner of central Alabama, with a brief wintry mix possible across the central part of the region.
The southeast corner of the area — generally along and south of Interstate 85 — should only get a cold rain.
A half-inch or less of snow or sleet is expected to accumulate, and widespread travel impacts aren’t expected as of Sunday morning.
The weather service said areas with the best potential for accumulating precipitation (snow or sleet) include Marion, Winston and Lamar counties as well as parts of Fayette, Pickens (northwest) and Walker (northwest) counties.
A wintry mix could begin in west-central Alabama as soon as midnight and spread eastward through the early morning.
It is expected to transition to all rain by noon on Monday.
The rain is expected to move out later in the day on Monday before temperatures fall below freezing again, so other than a few flurries no “impactful” wintry precipitation is expected Monday night, forecasters said.
Even south Alabama may get a shot at seeing some rain, light snow or sleet overnight, according to the National Weather Service in Mobile.
Areas in the western part of south Alabama have the best chance of seeing a mix of ice pellets and rain, but forecasters stressed that no accumulations are expected.
“If this occurs, it would most likely be from around Waynesboro, Miss., eastward to just north of Grove Hill, then over to near Camden,” the weather service said. “It is likely that the rain will occasionally transfer over to light snow or sleet (or a combination of the three) mainly between the hours of 3 a.m. and 9 a.m. Monday. Little to no accumulation is expected, and no hazardous impacts are expected at this time.”
Areas in southeast Alabama will only get a cold rain, according to the weather service in Tallahassee, Fla.
Forecasters will be watching an area of low pressure track along the Gulf Coast and said how close that low gets to the Louisiana coast will “play a critical part in weather or not a wintry mix of precipitation may develop” overnight.
If the low tracks farther north and onshore then that will lessen the chance of southwest Alabama seeing a wintry mix.
Rain chances will come to an end across the area by late Monday.