‘Destiny 2’ Players Will Now Definitely Fail The Dawning Community Challenge Without Bungie’s Help – Forbes

Well, I’ve continued to track Destiny 2’s Dawning Community Challenge since it went live with its five different stages of goals. It always seemed like a reach to hit the final goal of 1 billion, but now that we’re deep into it, it’s clear it’s flat-out impossible without Bungie stepping in to do something.

I was told that once people were on winter break, the numbers would pick up. Or once more people got the Dawning ship that generates Spirit, that would help. Neither have been true, and whatever gains from both of those have been offset by a general lack of interest in the event, and the pace has only slowed in time, the higher the goal has gotten.

Destiny 2 players did clear stage three yesterday close to reset, but the datamined values for the next stage were true, and the goal doubled from 250 million to 500 million, which makes it seem as if doubling again to 1 billion is indeed going to happen. There were rumors of a “stealth buff” to Dawning Spirit generation by Bungie, but that didn’t pan out. There was a surge right at reset as people dumped cookies for the new weekly bounties, but that didn’t last. 20 or so hours later, the new progress bar has only moved 6% (it started at 50%).

While yes, the Dawning runs until January 5, the math does not work here. To demonstrate this, reader Soren42 has made a very simple and clean Google spreadsheet that updates every few hours you can track here. (Update: here’s one that updates even more often).

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Here’s where it stands currently:

What this is saying is that we will hit the stage 4 goal in about a week at the current pace, it will take more than 22 days to reach the final goal of 1 billion, provided that doesn’t change. Unfortunately, there are only 13 days left in The Dawning, so it’s not even going to be close. Even if the goal was 750 million, we probably wouldn’t hit that either.

This has happened before, of course. Bungie had a similar situation during Season of the Worthy where it had to increase the multiplier for a community event that was not moving fast enough because they overestimated the final goal. There, the problem was both the high numbers and players didn’t want to keep grinding a public event they had already done to death and didn’t like in the first place. Here, the problem is that farming Dawning Spirit is just painfully boring and unrewarding. You have poor souls like streamer Chevy getting 1,300% of his personal Spirit requirement for triumphs by dedicated farming only to watch the progress bar move maybe 1% during his play session.

The other issue is that we have no idea what the final prize is. The symbol says something “exotic” rarity, but Destiny players know that could be anything from an exotic sparrow to a past exotic like Heir Apparent to a random exotic drop. The only thing I can see as a prize that would be truly “motivating” and cause the community to come together to grind harder would be knowing that it was a new coveted exotic catalyst (Thorn!) or a brand new exotic period. But we have no idea.

There’s a contingent of Destiny players who want us to fail the challenge A) just to see what happens and B) teach Bungie that community events like this are kind of bad and pointless and need to be reworked. I don’t disagree with that.

My guess is that we will see Bungie jump in with a progress multiplier at some point if things keep looking bad. Otherwise, who knows, maybe we do fail and never know what the mystery final prize is. But I doubt it.

I’d tell you to keep grinding but I mean, don’t. It’s impossible at this point unless something changes, so we’ll see what happens next. The ball is in Bungie’s court.

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