Election Day forecast across the US ‘great looking,’ features quiet, calm weather

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A much-appreciated quiet forecast for most of the U.S. on Election Day means that weather shouldn’t have any impact on those wanting to go to the polls.

A quiet weather pattern that started the week will stick around for Tuesday, with the only notable precipitation limited to the Pacific Northwest

“I’ve got probably the best forecast for voting that we could ever anticipate in U.S. history here,” Fox News senior meteorologist Janice Dean said on “Fox & Friends.”

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The Northeast is chilly and breezy with some leftover light snow over the mountains in interior locations and into New England.

Lingering snow showers and cool temperatures are sticking around in the Northeast on Election Day.

Lingering snow showers and cool temperatures are sticking around in the Northeast on Election Day. (Fox News)

“A little cold here in the Northeast, we had a system that moved through and still windy conditions,” Dean said.

Those snow showers have mostly ended, leaving the rest of Tuesday chilly and windy. 

Dry conditions stretch from coast-to-coast on Election Day.

Dry conditions stretch from coast-to-coast on Election Day. (Fox News)

The Northwest is the only place getting into an active weather pattern this week starting Tuesday, with several systems moving in.

A system moving into the Pacific Northwest will bring rain to Seattle and Portland on Tuesday.  

“We’re going to see the potential for rain and mountain snow, a more active pattern this week,” Dean said.

HOW WEATHER AFFECTS TURNOUT ON ELECTION DAY
 
Meanwhile, dry and warm weather will dominate the Plains with temperatures 25-30 degrees above average in some places.

The national forecast for Election Day, Nov. 3, 2020.

The national forecast for Election Day, Nov. 3, 2020. (Fox News)

With the exception of the Northeast, Pacific Northwest and Desert Southwest, the entire rest of the country will see highs in the 60s and 70s on Election Day, so it will be pleasant and dry for most.  

“That really is a great looking forecast,” Dean said Tuesday. “Mostly sunny for much of the country.”

How weather impacts turnout on Election Day

There’s a long-held belief in political circles that the weather affects voter turnout on Election Day — and that rainy, snowy or otherwise bad weather spells trouble for Democratic candidates and helps Republicans.

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A study from 2007 published in the Journal of Politics did find that stormy weather on Election Day keeps some voters at home — for every inch of rain that falls, voter participation declines by about 1%.

“Poor weather is also shown to benefit the Republican party’s vote share,” the study’s authors noted. “Indeed, the weather may have contributed to two Electoral College outcomes, the 1960 and 2000 presidential elections.”

The study also found that for every inch of rain that falls, Republican candidates receive an extra 2.5% of the vote.

One theory is that some traditionally key blocs of the Democratic voting base — elderly and low-income voters — have a more difficult time getting to polling stations in stormy weather and are therefore more likely to stay home on Election Day if the weather is bad. 

This could help explain why Republicans see a bump in their votes when it rains — and why you may hear Democratic strategists praying for sunny skies.

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But 2020 has broken the norms with the coronavirus pandemic upending the established elections process and record amounts of early voting

People line up outside a polling place to vote in the 2020 general election Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, in Springfield, Pa. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

People line up outside a polling place to vote in the 2020 general election Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, in Springfield, Pa. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum) (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

One thing that pundits won’t be able to point to in 2020 when looking at the final results is stormy weather on Tuesday.

Fox News’ Kristin Brown contributed to this report.

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