A NBC News analysis indicates that although it’s rare, it wouldn’t take many small town, Pennsylvania Trump defectors to turn the state blue.
Both Pennsylvania’s Northampton County and its small town of Forks Township are in a heavily-courted area of the state, which went Republican in 2016 for the first time since 1992, when Bill Clinton was elected president.
Election experts say that even a small number of 2016 Trump (pictured) voters who decide to vote Biden this election may be able to switch the state from red to blue
In 2016, both the county and town – said to be evenly divided and deeply polarized – went for Trump over Hillary Clinton by the relatively slim margin of 50 to 46 per cent.
Trump won the state by 48.2 per cent to Hillary Clinton’s 47.5 per cent.
As a result, even just a handful of voters switching sides for the 2020 election could have a significant impact on whether the county – and the state – wind up giving its electoral college votes to Trump or Biden.
Whichever way Pennsylvania goes, election experts say it’s likely the state will determine which candidate wins the presidency.
Voters like Victor Dennis, 91, of Forks Township, then stand to make a major difference in the election outcome.
Recent polls put Biden (pictured) ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania by 49 per cent to 44 per cent
Dennis told NBC News Friday that ‘First time in my life, I voted for a Democrat.’
He said, ‘I like a lot of the things Trump did, but I couldn’t stand his bloviating’ and noted that ultimately Trump’s ‘big mouth turned me off.’
NBC News reported that Biden only needs about 23,000 Pennsylvania voters, out of more than six million residents across the state, to turn the state blue.
Looking at from a very local angle, that is the equivalent of needing seven or eight voters out of about 2,000 voters that went to the polls from Forks Township’s ‘Western 2’ precinct.
Despite this, Teryn Hill, 37, of Forks Township, says that she believes Trump will win.
The Biden supporter said ‘That’s the pulse of what I feel in the area where I live.’
Elsewhere in Northampton County, Trump supporters are keeping the faith.
Sharon Lahr, 67, of Martin’s Creek, Pennsylvania, told the news network that she’s voting for Trump because ‘I don’t believe in abortion’ and ‘That’s the big thing.’
Trump – and now his daughter Ivanka Trump – is an avowed pro-lifer.
Lahr also noted that she believes 74-year-old Trump is a strong leader and is concerned that Biden, at 77, is ‘too old’ for the job, meaning Democratic vice presidential candidate ‘Kamala Harris will step in’ if Biden wins.
Jeff Geake, of Fort Washington, Pennsylvania, is another Trump supporter – the kind that Trump is relying on to help him win the state.
Geake told NBC News that he voted for Trump in 2016 and is voting for him again this year because ‘I like the way he talks to the media.’
Geake also said that ‘the media has too much control of our lives.’
Trump and his affiliates have made it a habit of calling news organizations and news reports that disagree with him ‘fake news’ and branding media the ‘enemy of the people.’
A Hill/Harris poll surveying 901 likely voters in Pennsylvania between October 26 to 29 showed that showed Biden head of Trump 51 per cent to 46 per cent.
Pollster Mark Penn told The Hill that ‘In Pennsylvania, Trump has strong rural support but is being pinned down by Biden in the suburbs, where the Democrat leads by a wide margin.’
Meanwhile a poll released Saturday by Allentown Morning Call/Morning Consult, showed Biden ahead of Trump 49 per cent to 44 per cent in Pennsylvania.
Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, which ran the poll, said that while Biden has ‘a good number,’ it’s ‘not a comfortable number,’ according to NBC News.
The five per cent lead ‘allows one to see paths by which the president could repeat his victory here in 2016.’