Trump Trailing Biden in Four Key Swing States: Latest Poll – Newsweek

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President Donald Trump is trailing Democratic challenger Joe Biden in four major swing states that he narrowly carried in 2016, a new poll shows.

Just days before Election Day, The New York Times/Siena College poll found Biden is ahead in the key battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona and Wisconsin.

The poll, conducted between October 26 and 31, found Biden leads by 6 percentage points in both Arizona and Pennsylvania, 49 percent to 43 percent. He is ahead by a more modest 3 points in Florida, 47 percent to 44 percent.

But Biden’s lead is stronger in Wisconsin, where he is ahead by 11 points. Fifty-two percent of people said they intend to vote for Biden compared to 41 percent for Trump in Wisconsin.

The margin of error is 3 points in Arizona, 2.4 points in Pennsylvania and 3.2 points in Wisconsin and Florida.

According to The Times, Biden’s advantage in the four states has been bolstered by the support of voters who didn’t turn out four years ago. In Wisconsin, voters who didn’t cast a ballot in 2016 favor Biden by 19 points while in Florida, it’s by 17 points. In Pennsylvania, Biden ahead by 12 points among those voters and in Arizona, by 7 points.

On Twitter, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver shared how the new polls affected the website’s averages.

“What I’m getting at here is … things look pretty locked in. Not the election outcome itself! That ain’t locked in at all!” Silver added.

“But our final averages may not change much. Especially after adding these polls because they have huge sample sizes and so get a lot of weight in our model.”

It comes after recent polls determined Georgia, a Republican stronghold for decades, is considered a battleground state in this year’s election.

A recent poll found the race is very tight in the state, with Trump leading by only one percentage point. The Landmark Communications/WSB-TV survey, conducted on October 28, found that 48 percent of people said they would vote for Trump if the election were held that day, compared to the 47 percent for Biden.

With his chances of securing a second term looking grim, Trump has continued to baselessly attack the integrity of the election, while still claiming he would be victorious.

At rallies in Pennsylvania, he claimed there would be “bedlam” while Pennsylvania and other states count ballots after Election Day and “very bad things can happen.”

He also criticized the U.S. Supreme Court for handing down “many disappointing opinions,” including the decision to uphold a ruling that allows some mailed ballots received up to three days after November 3 to be counted.

On Twitter early Sunday, Trump again claimed he would triumph in the election. “Our numbers are looking VERY good all over. Sleepy Joe is already beginning to pull out of certain states. The Radical Left is going down!” Trump wrote.

According to the U.S. Elections Project, which tracks early voting closely, more than 92 million voters have already cast their ballots as of early Sunday—around two-thirds of the total votes counted in 2016.

Biden
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama make a stop at a canvass kickoff event at Birmingham Unitarian Church on October 31, in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan.
Drew Angerer/Getty Images

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