Warnock is leading Herschel by four points in poll just two weeks before Georgia run-off

Democrat Raphael Warnock is leading Herschel Walker by four points in poll just two weeks before Georgia run-off that will decide the Senate’s final undecided seat

  • The poll, commissioned by AARP, has Warnock at 51 and Walker at 47 percent, within the margin of error at 4.4 percentage points
  • It’s the first major poll out since the November 8 election ended in neither candidate breaching 50 percent
  • Under Georgia’s election law if no candidate secures a majority in the election the top two candidates rematch in a runoff race
  • Warnock is dominating his opponent among Independent voters 54 to 39 percent, a voting bloc which once reliably voted for Republicans

A new poll out two weeks ahead of the Georgia Senate runoff election shows incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock edging out Republican Herschel Walker by four points. 

The poll, commissioned by AARP, has Warnock at 51 and Walker at 47 percent, within the margin of error at 4.4 percentage points. 

It’s the first major poll out since the November 8 election ended in neither candidate breaching 50 percent, but Warnock ran less than one percentage point ahead. It was conducted by a bipartisan team at Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research. 

Under Georgia‘s election law if no candidate secures a majority in the election the top two candidates rematch in a runoff race. 

Warnock is dominating his opponent among Independent voters 54 to 39 percent, a voting bloc which once reliably voted for Republicans. Walker was also handicapped in the midterm elections by split ticket Republicans who voted for GOP Gov. Brian Kemp and GOP Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger but switched parties with their Senate vote. 

A new poll out two weeks ahead of the Georgia Senate runoff election shows incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock edging out Republican Herschel Walker, above, by four points

A new poll out two weeks ahead of the Georgia Senate runoff election shows incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock edging out Republican Herschel Walker, above, by four points

The poll, commissioned by AARP, has Warnock, above, at 51 and Walker at 47 percent, within the margin of error at 4.4 percentage points

The poll, commissioned by AARP, has Warnock, above, at 51 and Walker at 47 percent, within the margin of error at 4.4 percentage points

Kemp and Raffensperger finished 7.5 and 9 points ahead of  their opponents respectively. 

The polling indicated vast gender and age gaps. Warnock led among women by 11 points while Walker led with men by 5 points. Warnock has a 24-point lead among voters 18-49 while Walker has a 9 point lead with voters over 50. Luckily for Walker, voters over 50 are the most motivated to cast their ballot. 

Democrats have already secured their majority in the Senate, securing 50 seats after a number of Trump-backed candidates underperformed in their races, making the race less consequential than it could have been. Vice President Kamala Harris can now serve as their tie-breaking vote.  

Still, President Obama will travel to the Peach State to stump for Warnock on Dec. 1. It remains to be seen whether President Biden will head south ahead of the runoff. His popularity is still low in Georgia, at 43 percent according to the survey. 

It will also be telling to see whether Trump heads to Georgia. Some Republicans blame him for losing the Senate seats there in both 2020, when they say his laser focus on election fraud discouraged Republican voters in the runoff, and in 2022, with Walker being a candidate Senate Republicans initially shied away from due to in part due to the controversies from his past.  

In the final weeks of the campaign, Walker was accused of paying for two women’s abortions and his son came out against him saying he and his mother had moved six times in six months ‘running from his violence.’  

Warnock beat Sen. Kelly Loeffler in a 2020 special election and is now vying for a full six-year term.

Still, Democrats are keen on cinching one more seat to give them a 51-vote majority. That would mean they would rely less on the vote of moderate West Virginia Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin, and Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer would not have to negotiate a power-sharing agreement with GOP Leader Mitch McConnell. 

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