Joe Biden will become “an underdog” if he fails to win Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes, FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said on ABC’s “This Week” Sunday.
Why it matters: Trump won the battleground by less than a point in 2016, as he narrowly swept swing states in the Rust Belt to secure victory in the Electoral College. FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls currently shows Biden with a 5% lead in Pennsylvania.
What he’s saying: Silver told “This Week” that if Trump ends up winning the election, “it would come down to Pennsylvania.”
- “Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin. It’s 5 points. It’s not a big early voting state, so a lot of votes have not yet been cast in Pennsylvania,” Silver said.
- “Among the votes that were sent in by mail, there are some provisions about a naked ballot, a security envelope. That could make things more complicated. You could have the courts involved. You have some protests, looting in Philadelphia. There’s lots of stuff going on.”
- “Maybe a lot of little things add up and Biden loses Pennsylvania by half a point, and then he doesn’t quite pull off Arizona or North Carolina. He does have other options. … But still, without Pennsylvania, then Biden becomes an underdog.”
The big picture: FiveThirtyEight gives President Trump a 10% chance of winning the election and Biden a 90% chance.